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The Independent Investor: The Next Recession
By Bill Schmick,
05:27PM / Thursday, June 21, 2018
Over half the economists on Wall Street believe that by the end of 2020, we will experience our first economic downturn in years. If so, when might you begin to prepare for a rocky two-year period for all of us?   The good news is that we still have another year or so of stock market gains, job growth and more importantly, wage growth. As it stands, the U.S. is currently enjoying its second-longest economic expansion in history with an unemployment rate that hasn't been this low in decades. Wage growth, after languishing for years, is expected to top 3 percent by the end of 2018, while GDP could achieve greater than 3 percent this year and a further 2.5 percent next

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@theMarket: Trump's $50 Billion in Chinese Tariffs Trashes Markets
By Bill Schmick,
10:46AM / Saturday, June 16, 2018
Investors waited all week for President Trump's verdict. On Friday, he did not disappoint his followers. He decided to move ahead with plans to slap $34 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports. Stock markets worldwide fell on the news as investors await a Chinese response.   And China will respond. Chinese trade officials have already outlined their planned retaliation. China will match Trump's 25 percent tariff on 818 products by doing the same on 106 American goods worth about $50 billion.   We can expect an accelerating war of tit-for-tat tariffs in the weeks ahead. For example, the United States Trade Representative plans to add an additional 284

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The Independent Investor: How to Avoid Recession? Emigrate to Australia
By Bill Schmick,
03:13PM / Thursday, June 14, 2018
  — "New Colossus" by Emma Lazarus (Statue of Liberty)   This "land down under" has escaped an economic recession for 26 years in a row. An open immigration policy in a nationalist world that demands just the opposite is one of the key drivers to their success. An abundance of natural resource wealth has also helped.   Readers would need to go back to the late 1980s, early 1990s, to find two quarters of negative growth (the definition of an economic recession) in Australia. Back then, Australia was noted for its boom and bust economy. Throughout their 160-plus year history, mining booms in gold,

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The Independent Investor: Trump's trade war
By Bill Schmick,
03:52PM / Thursday, June 07, 2018
Over the weekend, the G-7 group of nations met to denounce the recent actions of the United States. This coming Friday, these same leaders convene in Quebec. President Trump will attend and seems determined to face them down.   Ever since the Trump administration announced plans to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum by 25 percent and 10 percent respectively, our allies have been livid. Some are referring to the upcoming meeting as the G-6, plus the United States. You've got to hand it to the president, he doesn't back off, but given the circumstances, maybe he should.   I doubt that anyone in this country believes the present trade agreements

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@theMarket: Another Week of Market Volatility
By Bill Schmick,
04:29PM / Friday, June 01, 2018
As the month wound down, so did stocks. Pronouncements from Washington dominated the market's direction on a daily basis. We can expect to see that trend continue as the summer doldrums reduce liquidity and exaggerate market swings.   The adage of "sell in May," however, did not fulfill the bears' expectations this year.   Actually, the month of May has been pretty good for stocks recently. The S&P 500 Benchmark Index gained a smidge over two percent for the month this year. That's not to say those gains were easy. The stress level for those who are trying to trade this market is through the roof.   And that's because

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