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@theMarket: A Wash-Rinse-Repeat Market
By Bill Schmick,
04:07PM / Friday, June 29, 2018
There was nothing to see in the markets this week, simply more of the same crisis news that may keep the media happy, but no one else. Tariffs and trade remain in the forefront and will continue to do so. What should investors do?   Just move on and enjoy your summer. The Fourth of July falls in the middle of the coming week with stock markets closing for half the day on Tuesday. As such, many professional traders will take the entire week off. Given that the Northeast faces their first summer heatwave as well, the corridors of Wall Street should be quite empty.   So whatever ups and downs the stock market may have next week will mean little to

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The Independent Investor: Currencies & Trade Wars
By Bill Schmick,
04:34PM / Thursday, June 28, 2018
What's up with the dollar? The greenback is strengthening and is having its best quarter since 2016 against an array of foreign currencies. Is this an accident, or is it something far more dangerous?   Economists will tell you that the Trump tariff crusade is responsible. New trade barriers, which the president is suggesting, would usually lead to higher prices at home, according to economic doctrine. Products we import would cost more, whether we are talking about steel, automobiles, or baseball caps.   As prices increase, so should the U.S. inflation rate. As inflation rises, bondholders will demand higher interest rates to keep up with inflation. In turn,

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@theMarket: Ignore the Noise and Profit
By Bill Schmick,
03:51PM / Friday, June 22, 2018
The world is in turmoil. The news is all bad. Trump is threatening to up the ante on tariffs. NAFTA is kaput. Our trade partners hate us. China won't back down and, if you have time to spare, you are reading about immigrant kids locked in Texas dog cages by order of the president. So why is the stock market holding up?   The fundamental reason remains the same. Under all the muck, there is and will continue to be a bid under the stock market. In past columns, I have explained why — corporate stock buybacks, M&A, higher dividends coupled with a strong economy and low-interest rates.   If you look at the technicals, which I do, every sell-off seems

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The Independent Investor: The Next Recession
By Bill Schmick,
05:27PM / Thursday, June 21, 2018
Over half the economists on Wall Street believe that by the end of 2020, we will experience our first economic downturn in years. If so, when might you begin to prepare for a rocky two-year period for all of us?   The good news is that we still have another year or so of stock market gains, job growth and more importantly, wage growth. As it stands, the U.S. is currently enjoying its second-longest economic expansion in history with an unemployment rate that hasn't been this low in decades. Wage growth, after languishing for years, is expected to top 3 percent by the end of 2018, while GDP could achieve greater than 3 percent this year and a further 2.5 percent next

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@theMarket: Trump's $50 Billion in Chinese Tariffs Trashes Markets
By Bill Schmick,
10:46AM / Saturday, June 16, 2018
Investors waited all week for President Trump's verdict. On Friday, he did not disappoint his followers. He decided to move ahead with plans to slap $34 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports. Stock markets worldwide fell on the news as investors await a Chinese response.   And China will respond. Chinese trade officials have already outlined their planned retaliation. China will match Trump's 25 percent tariff on 818 products by doing the same on 106 American goods worth about $50 billion.   We can expect an accelerating war of tit-for-tat tariffs in the weeks ahead. For example, the United States Trade Representative plans to add an additional 284

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